Aadhaar Inclusion and Causality Inference

According to a report published today in Economic Times, 92% of the population in India (based on 2018 consensus) with nearly all adults barring 3.5 million have an Aadhaar card. This is a phenomenal achievement in bringing underprivileged people for social and financial inclusion. Aadhaar card’s unique identification number will soon work as a social security number for the population. Making aadhaar card essential for all monetary dealings ultimately aids in widening tax bracket. Over a period of time, casual inference using multivariate analysis will help in measuring the social impact of aadhaar inclusion.

Coming to multivariate analysis which is correlation analysis using multiple variables to measure causality. Although Random Control Trial (RCT) is the gold standard to measure causality between two randomly selected samples sizes i.e. control group and treatment group,  in this case, it will not be possible to make two groups randomly selected i.e. two groups with very similar demographic profile randomly selected, one sample without aadhaar card and one sample with aadhaar card. However, a time series data of the population over a decade before and after aadhaar implementation might lead to useful insights. This form of statistical analysis is not a form of RCT analysis.  Continue reading

Module on Structured Products

The first module I published on my blog was on Structured Products. Globally, structured products form an important part of asset allocation and portfolio management. It also a very good way of taking exposures across various asset classes ranging from forex, commodities, equities, interest rates etc. Digital options form an important part of some of the products detailed here. Digital options are binary options i.e. the payout would be zero or predetermined as defined in the investment mandate.

The presentation which was first published in 2015 on this blog, details brief outline on structured products, different types of structured notes, range accrual plans, knout out structured notes and valuation of a NIFTY equity lined structured note.

Check out this link

https://themiddleroad.org/knowledge-tutorials-presentations/

 

Fed Hikes Rate

Federal Reserve today raised the US Fed Fund rates and the rate will range between 1.75% to 2%. Fed rate decides mortgage,  credit card, student loan rates among others. The rates are now close to pre-credit crisis levels. This was widely anticipated, so let’s look at what Fed rate means and Federal Reserve manages to keep the rates with a tight band.

What is dirty float?

Coming up an article on the dirty float not to be confused with Dirty Dancing. Dirty float here alludes to currency intervention by central banks to stabilize currency within a band. This policy is followed by many countries including India.  This term came up during the recent trade rhetoric and have thought about writing a bit on this subject for some time and with this, we come to a concept of Impossible Trinity

Educate Girls

Educate Girls, a nonprofit organization based in India, is empowering women in rural India through increased access to quality education to cut gender inequality. Educate Girls is also the first nonprofit or any organization in India to use Social Impact Bonds to proliferate pay for success as a model for delivering a measurable and sustainable social impact. Continue reading