Theory of Change

This lesson introduces the Theory of Change program logic and shares a brief perspective about the strategic framework. Its highly recommended that you hear the podcast with Dr. Helene Clark, Founder and Director of ActKnowledge, and Board Chair of The Center for Theory of Change. She is a leading authority on this subject; another read recommended is the Theory of Change read on this subject published by The middle Road under Insights. The first guidelines for the theory of change framework was set up through a collaborative effort by The Aspen Research Institute’s Roundtable on Community Change and ActKnowledge, a global capacity-building organization based in New York, US. It’s imperative to read some of the publications mentioned for an informed understanding of the concept.  Understanding the Theory of Change (ToC) framework is very important to work on projects in the development sector. Today, ToC is ubiquitous, a design tool that mixes qualitative and quantitative understanding for a measurable outcome of interventions or policies. 

One of the most prominent bilateral development organizations using the Theory of Change is The Department for International Development in the UK (DFID). Comic Relief report on the Theory of Changes shares a broad overview of various actors globally using the ToC framework.

Video: Introduction Theory of Change 

# Theory of Change 

Theory of Change (ToC) forms the bedrock of impact evaluation design. The impetus to the change framework came through the ground-breaking work by the Aspen Institute Round table on Community Change (Round table) titled The Community Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change: A Practical Guide to Theory Development for measuring and evaluating social interventions. Initially designed to facilitate a refresher course for building a theory of change model for community-based programs and initiatives, ToC philosophy permeates wide-ranging and long-lasting social change and impact within the social and development sector. Its footprints encompass impact-based giving to evidence-based analysis of policies and social interventions for a long-term wholesome change within our society. Theory of Change wears multiple hats; consider a deep-rooted philosophy, a strategic foundation to a change tool, its presence is paramount in today’s global ecosystem.

Over the years, the international development center went through a transformational change. Lack of transparency and accountability drove many actors away from the social sector.

Image: The middle Road

Listen to Dr. Helene – she discusses the difference between outcome and output cites relevant examples outlining long-term goals. This conversation part of the podcast with Helene is essential and insightful. Based on her experience, small organizations report on outputs, not comprehending the difference between outcomes and outputs. Below educational video discusses steps involved in the theory of the Change process. The process always begins with what changes you are looking for and the pathways to achieve that change. The process works backward by setting up an intervention or series of interventions mapped to a set of preconditions or indicators that would lead to the final goal. Outputs are metrics that are set on the way to achieving the outcome. Theory of Change processes is casually mapped through the cause and effect logic linearly or a complex design to achieve a broader result that would be either generic or esoteric. Consider the outcome is to reduce juvenile incarceration. For this project, initiating support groups for crime-prone teens or the number of mentor juvenile offender ratio can be the outputs you measure. This example explains the outcome; this change will lead to the backward mapping process measured by a set of preconditions. In this case, one of the outcomes could be teens becoming more mindful of their actions, leading to avoidance of imprisonment.

Before jumping to the next section in this course, a quiz to check concepts covered in the course and an example on Theory of Change program logic. Next will be a quiz on the topics covered within this course. Section two of this course briefly discusses statistical tools used to measure experimental and nonexperimental techniques.